Healthy Breather Or Something More Sinister?

The XJO managed a first back-to-back loss today since early January, after world indices slumped overnight. After the RBA's failure to cut rates, the XJO briefly recovered before trading into weakness until the close. 

The daily picture sees the price action dip back under uptrending resistance from August 2012 after staying above water for the past few trading days. The most recent uptrending channel still stays in tact, however a break below 4,850 will quickly see this thrown out. The main question is, is this part of a healthy pullback of a seemingly overextended market, or the beginning of a correction? MACD indicates that momentum is shifting quickly in favour of bears, however we would be foolish to definitively call a top here just yet. There may still be one more flurry at 4,969 in this up move, however the pain from overseas markets must be quelled soon for this to happen.

The hourly chart shows the trend from 15 January still alive. Bears will want to take out support and move towards 4,830. MACD has been sliding considerably, and although it may have stopped the rot today, it may not be over yet.